Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has drawn fresh attention after outlining plans to invest up to US$100 million in the UK, including a collaboration on quantum error correction and deployment of a large scale system.

These UK expansion plans and recent technical progress arrive after a volatile stretch, with Rigetti’s 1 day share price return of 8.84% contrasting with a 30 day share price return decline of 19.40%. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 79.77% and a very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest earlier investors have already experienced substantial gains.

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With Rigetti reporting rapid revenue and net income growth alongside a loss of US$216.21 million and a market cap of about US$4.28b, the key question is whether the current price offers upside or if markets already price in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 42.7% Undervalued

With Rigetti last closing at $14.04 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $24.50, some investors see a large valuation gap worth examining.

The trajectory of quantum computing, particularly in the context of Rigetti Computing and the Quantum Benchmark Testing System (QBTS), could witness significant shifts. Trump's emphasis on "America First" policies might lead to increased funding for public-private partnerships and The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)'s R&D works in critical technologies, including quantum computing, as part of national security and technological supremacy initiatives.

The key question behind this fair value is simple: How much revenue expansion and margin improvement would justify that kind of upside? The narrative leans on stronger commercial traction, a shift toward healthier cash flow and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for established tech names. Curious which assumptions are doing the heavy lifting.

Result: Fair Value of $24.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on quantum hardware execution and policy support, where delays, technical setbacks or shifting government priorities could easily challenge that undervalued story.

Another View: Market Ratio Signals Caution

The popular narrative leans on a $24.50 fair value, but the market is sending a different signal. Rigetti trades on a P/B of 8.5x, compared with 4.1x for peers and 3.9x for the wider US Semiconductor group, which points to a rich entry price rather than a discount.

That kind of premium can reflect optimism about future revenue growth, but it also raises the risk that any bump in sentiment or project setbacks could hit the share price harder. The key question is whether you are comfortable paying more than double the sector P/B for a company that is still loss making.

Next Steps

With both bullish and cautious views in play, this is a good moment to review the numbers yourself, weigh the trade offs, and see the full picture by checking 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.