Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM) is back in the spotlight after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 results that showed a move from a prior year loss to profitability.

The earnings rebound and comments about record lithium volumes come after a mixed share price spell, with a 15.28% 90 day share price return and a 67.43% one year total shareholder return, but pressure in the past month hinting that recent optimism is being reassessed.

If SQM’s earnings recovery has you thinking about where else growth and risk might be shifting in materials, you may want to scan our 7 top copper producer stocks as a next stop.

With earnings back in the black, a one year total return above 60% and the latest close near the stated analyst price target, the key question now is whether SQM is still mispriced or if markets already reflect its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 6.3% Undervalued

The most followed narrative places Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile’s fair value at $75.33 versus the last close of $70.62, so it sees modest upside still on the table.

Recent research on Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile points to a split view, with several bullish analysts lifting ratings and targets on the back of stronger lithium pricing and renewed interest in the sector, while more cautious voices question how current valuations line up with fundamentals.

Want to see what sits behind that split view? The core narrative leans on changing earnings power, shifting margin assumptions and a different future P/E than today. Curious which mix of growth, profitability and discount rate gets to that $75.33 figure?

Result: Fair Value of $75.33 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story still leans heavily on lithium pricing staying supportive and on large capital projects avoiding delays, cost overruns, or regulatory setbacks.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Flags A Richer Price

The 6.3% undervaluation story sits uncomfortably next to the earnings multiple. SQM trades on a P/E of 34.3x, compared with a fair ratio of 31.9x, a US Chemicals average of 23.5x and a peer average of 26.2x. So is this actually a margin of safety or a valuation stretch?

Next Steps

If you feel the story so far is pulling you in two directions, take a closer look at the full picture and decide where you stand, starting with 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.