AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 8.8% to hit US$2.2b. AerCap Holdings also reported a statutory profit of US$4.96, which was an impressive 47% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering AerCap Holdings provided consensus estimates of US$8.44b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a measurable 2.7% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 38% to US$15.41 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.93 in 2026. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a solid gain to earnings per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$164, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AerCap Holdings at US$175 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$150. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.6% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AerCap Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards AerCap Holdings following these results. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$164, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AerCap Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.