AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$2.2b, some 2.9% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$4.59, 22% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from AerCap Holdings' eight analysts is for revenues of US$8.58b in 2026, which would reflect a perceptible 4.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 23% to US$16.89 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.98 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$179, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AerCap Holdings at US$190 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$165. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the AerCap Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.4% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - AerCap Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around AerCap Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that AerCap Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$179, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for AerCap Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.