AerSale (ASLE) FY 2025 earnings snapshot

AerSale (ASLE) just wrapped up FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$90.9 million and basic EPS of US$0.11, rounding out a year where trailing 12 month revenue came in at US$335.3 million and EPS was US$0.18. Over recent quarters the company has seen revenue move from US$94.7 million in Q4 2024 to US$65.8 million in Q1 2025, US$107.4 million in Q2 and US$71.2 million in Q3, with EPS ranging from a loss of US$0.10 in Q1 2025 to a high of US$0.18 in Q2 before landing at US$0.11 in the latest quarter. This gives investors a clearer view of how profitability is shaping up across the year. With margins reported as improving on a trailing basis and earnings rebounding from earlier losses, this set of results puts the focus on how durable AerSale's profitability profile is.

See our full analysis for AerSale.

With the headline numbers set, the next step is to see how these results compare with the prevailing views on AerSale's growth, risks and long term earnings power.

Margins tick up with 2.6% net margin

• Over the last 12 months, AerSale reported a 2.6% net profit margin, up from 1.7% a year earlier, with trailing revenue of US$335.3 million and net income of US$8.6 million.
• Consensus narrative highlights that higher margins are tied to factors like AerSafe demand and MRO expansion, and the current numbers partly line up with that, but investors also need to account for the US$2.7 million one off gain sitting inside the last 12 months because it flatters the margin that bulls point to as evidence of a cleaner, more repeatable earnings base.
  • For example, trailing earnings growth of 46.6% looks strong next to the 13.1% revenue growth, which fits the bullish idea of better operating leverage, yet the non recurring gain means not all of that uplift comes from core operations.
  • At the same time, the move from a 1.7% to 2.6% margin does show the business earning more per dollar of sales than a year ago, which is consistent with bullish views around expanding high margin services, even if the quality of that improvement needs a closer look.

On the margin story, bulls see early confirmation that higher quality revenue is taking hold, while the accounting nuance suggests you should still separate durable gains from one offs before leaning too hard into the optimistic case 🐂 AerSale Bull Case.

Earnings swing from losses to US$0.18 EPS over 12 months

• Across the last year, quarterly basic EPS ranged from a loss of US$0.10 in Q1 2025 to a high of US$0.18 in Q2, ending at US$0.11 in Q4, and produced trailing 12 month EPS of about US$0.18.
• Bears argue that AerSale remains exposed to volatile, transactional revenue and earnings, and the pattern here partially backs that up because the move from Q1 loss to Q2 profit and then softer Q3 before the Q4 recovery shows that profitability can shift meaningfully from one quarter to the next even as trailing earnings grow 46.6% for the year.
  • The Q1 2025 loss of US$5.3 million followed by Q2 net income of US$8.6 million and a small Q3 loss of US$0.1 million illustrates exactly the lumpiness in flight equipment sales and contract timing that the bearish view focuses on.
  • However, ending the year with Q4 net income of US$5.4 million and positive trailing EPS of US$0.18 also shows that the business produced a profit over the full 12 months, which does not fully align with the idea that volatility alone defines the story.

Skeptics point to the choppy path from losses to profits as a sign of fragile earnings, even though the full year still landed in positive territory 🐻 AerSale Bear Case.

P/E premium and big DCF gap to US$55.94

• At a share price of US$7.33, AerSale trades on a trailing P/E of 40.4x, above both the peer average of 28.8x and the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 37.3x, while the provided DCF fair value of US$55.94 sits far above the current price.
• Consensus narrative flags the risk that short term growth and regulatory tailwinds may be overstated in the market, and the numbers set up a clear tension because the higher than peer P/E suggests investors are already paying up for the recent 13.1% revenue growth and 46.6% earnings growth, yet the DCF fair value implies very large upside that would require those growth and margin assumptions in the forecasts to hold over time.
  • Revenue forecasts of 13.1% per year and earnings growth of 50.7% per year help explain why a DCF model can arrive at US$55.94, but they also show how sensitive that figure is to high growth expectations compared with the current 2.6% net margin.
  • The spread between the US$7.33 price and the US$8.00 analyst target is much smaller than the gap to DCF fair value, which underlines how different valuation frameworks can point in different directions even when looking at the same recent financials.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for AerSale on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With such a mixed set of signals on growth, margins and valuation, it helps to look at the underlying data yourself and move quickly to your own view, then weigh that impression against the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Explore Alternatives

AerSale's earnings profile looks fragile, with thin 2.6% net margins, lumpy quarterly EPS and a P/E above both peers and the wider Aerospace & Defense group.

If that mix of volatile profits and a premium P/E makes you cautious, you could compare it with companies that look cheaper on the numbers using the 51 high quality undervalued stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.