Ambarella (AMBA) is back in focus after its share repurchase plan expired on June 30, 2026, just as the stock has been swinging sharply on fresh AI related headlines and earnings news.

Recent trading in Ambarella has been volatile, with a 22.23% 7 day share price return offset by an 11.30% pullback in the last session. At the same time, the 90 day share price return of 55.05% and 1 year total shareholder return of 16.40% point to momentum that has built over a longer stretch, despite mixed signals from insider selling and valuation metrics.

If Ambarella's AI driven swings have your attention, this could be a moment to look across the sector and see which other chipmakers are catching a bid through our 52 AI infrastructure stocks

With Ambarella now trading at $78.36, sitting on a modest discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic estimates, the key question is whether you are seeing lingering undervaluation here or a market that has already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued

Ambarella's most followed valuation narrative places fair value at about $97.45 per share, well above the last close at $78.36, which frames the current debate around how much of its edge AI opportunity is already in the price.

Sharply increasing demand for AI-powered edge devices, including portable video, robotics (notably aerial drones), and edge infrastructure, has led to a rapid expansion of Ambarella's addressable markets, as evidenced by record edge AI revenue and multiple recent, diversified design wins. This is catalyzing strong, sustained revenue growth and positions Ambarella to benefit further as additional vertical applications for edge AI proliferate.

Curious how that edge AI story translates into the $97.45 fair value mark, and why the model leans so heavily on future revenue, margin expansion, and a rich earnings multiple to bridge the gap with the current Ambarella share price?

Result: Fair Value of $97.45 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Ambarella's heavy reliance on IoT related revenue and concentrated exposure to key Asian distribution partners means any demand slowdown or customer setback could quickly challenge this edge AI narrative.

Another View on Ambarella's Valuation

While the narrative and fair value model suggest Ambarella is around 19.6% undervalued at $78.36, the simple sales multiple tells a different story. The stock trades on a P/S of 8.5x versus a fair ratio of 8.4x and a peer and industry average of 5x, which points to less obvious upside and more sensitivity if sentiment cools.

Next Steps

If you are reviewing this mixed picture on Ambarella and wondering what matters most right now, you may want to consider the balance of potential risks and rewards in greater detail through the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.