Amcor (AMCR) has moved into focus after announcing an expansion of its flexible packaging facility in Dongguan, China, along with its participation in a recycled-content packaging project for Mondelez International in Europe.

These packaging announcements come as Amcor’s share price sits at US$43.94, with a 30 day share price return of 7.78% and a 90 day gain of 4.77%. The 1 year total shareholder return is slightly negative, suggesting improving short term momentum against a softer longer term picture.

If this kind of packaging expansion has you thinking about where else growth stories could emerge, it might be worth scanning 18 top founder-led companies

The recent move in Amcor, backed by fresh spending on flexible packaging and recycled content projects, raises a simple tension: has the stock already reflected most of this story, or is there still meaningful upside left on the table?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.9% Undervalued

The most followed narrative on Amcor currently points to a fair value of $48.21 against the last close at $43.94, putting the recent packaging updates in the context of a stock that some models view as undervalued.

The integration of Berry Global with Amcor is expected to yield $650 million in synergies by fiscal 2028 (with $260 million in fiscal 2026), primarily through cost reduction, procurement optimization, and operational efficiencies, which should support sustained EPS and margin expansion.

Curious what kind of revenue mix, profit margins, and earnings multiple are built into that valuation story? The narrative leans on measured growth, fatter margins, and a lower future P/E to justify that fair value gap.

Result: Fair Value of $48.21 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the Amcor narrative still faces pressure from weak consumer demand in key regions and high leverage, either of which could challenge the expected synergy and deleveraging story.

Another View: Amcor on Earnings Multiples

While the most popular Amcor narrative leans on a fair value of $48.21, the current P/E of about 30x is higher than both the global packaging industry at 16.1x and the peer average at 29x, and also above a fair ratio of 23.6x, which points to valuation risk rather than a clear discount. So is the story here about upside, or about how much you are paying for it?

For investors who prefer to anchor decisions on earnings multiples and how they can compress or expand over time, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals on Amcor have you unsure, use this as a prompt to review the numbers yourself and weigh both sides of the story, then check out the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Amcor?

If the Amcor story has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the screener to spot other stocks that might suit your approach and risk tolerance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.