There's been a notable change in appetite for Amentum Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AMTM) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 17% to US$30.07. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$3.2b, statutory earnings beat expectations 3.4%, with Amentum Holdings reporting profits of US$0.18 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Amentum Holdings' eleven analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$14.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 171% to US$1.09. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$14.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.00 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$36.64, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amentum Holdings at US$42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.8% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 43% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Amentum Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Amentum Holdings following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$36.64, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Amentum Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Amentum Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.