It's been a good week for Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 9.3% to US$98.70. Revenues were ₸1.1t, with Kaspi.kz reporting some 3.4% below analyst expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Kaspi.kz's three analysts is for revenues of ₸4.78t in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 7.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.2% to ₸5,868. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₸4.98t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₸5,639 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

There's been no real change to the average price target of US$101, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Kaspi.kz analyst has a price target of US$124 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$84.93. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kaspi.kz is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kaspi.kz's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 35% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Kaspi.kz is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Kaspi.kz's earnings potential next year. They also downgraded Kaspi.kz's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$101, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kaspi.kz analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Kaspi.kz is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.