Shareholders might have noticed that TELA Bio, Inc. (NASDAQ:TELA) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 10.0% to US$0.99 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$19m, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at US$0.21 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for TELA Bio from five analysts is for revenues of US$86.7m in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 7.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 27% to US$0.65. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$86.8m and losses of US$0.69 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

Even with the lower forecast losses, the analysts lowered their valuations, with the average price target falling 35% to US$2.25. It looks likethe analysts have become less optimistic about the overall business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on TELA Bio, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3.25 and the most bearish at US$1.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that TELA Bio's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 241 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while TELA Bio's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for TELA Bio going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - TELA Bio has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.