TELA Bio, Inc. (NASDAQ:TELA) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$19m and leading to a corresponding blowout in statutory losses. The loss per share was US$0.20, some 15% larger than the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the latest results, TELA Bio's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$82.4m in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 16% from last year to US$0.77. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$86.7m and US$0.65 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a noticeable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target fell 6.7% to US$2.10, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic TELA Bio analyst has a price target of US$3.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that TELA Bio's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like TELA Bio is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple TELA Bio analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with TELA Bio (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.