The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Beam Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:BEAM), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. Earnings missed the mark, with revenues of US$490k falling badly (97%) short of expectations. Losses were mildly higher, with a US$1.18 per-share loss being 7.5% above what the analysts modelled. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eleven analysts covering Beam Therapeutics is for revenues of US$53.8m in 2026. This implies a sizeable 66% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 408% to US$4.40 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$78.9m and losses of US$4.34 per share in 2026. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

There was no real change to the average price target of US$52.15, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Beam Therapeutics' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Beam Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$80.00 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Beam Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 88% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 20% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 23% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Beam Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Beam Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.