As you might know, Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRA) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Results overall were mixed; even though revenues of US$697m beat expectations by 13%, statutory losses were US$0.60 per share, 8.4% larger than what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Natera's 18 analysts is for revenues of US$2.77b in 2026. This reflects a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$1.69. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.67b and losses of US$1.82 per share in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$261, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Natera at US$300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$190. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Natera's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 32% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Natera is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Natera going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Natera , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.