Shareholders might have noticed that ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.7% to US$21.38 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CN¥15b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥11.19 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that ZTO Express (Cayman) is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ZTO Express (Cayman) after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ZTO Express (Cayman) from 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥58.4b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 7.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 3.6% to CN¥13.11 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥57.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥13.15 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$28.69. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ZTO Express (Cayman) analyst has a price target of US$32.79 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$23.02. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting ZTO Express (Cayman) is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that ZTO Express (Cayman)'s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ZTO Express (Cayman) is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ZTO Express (Cayman). Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ZTO Express (Cayman) going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the ZTO Express (Cayman) Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.