ANZ ON OIL: THE REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL ALLEVIATE THE IMMEDIATE SUPPLY SHOCK, BUT IT WON’T RESTORE BALANCE TO THE OIL MARKET

- ANZ:

  • SEES BRENT CRUDE TO END Q2 AT $80/BBL, EXPECTS OIL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE

  • SAYS THE REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL ALLEVIATE THE IMMEDIATE SUPPLY SHOCK, BUT IT WON’T RESTORE BALANCE TO THE OIL MARKET

  • SAYS PHYSICAL BALANCES WILL REMAIN TIGHT, INVENTORY REBUILDING WILL BE SLOW AND A GEOPOLITICAL RISK PREMIUM WILL LIKELY PERSIST

  • SAYS FINANCIAL MARKETS WILL PRICE A QUICK REOPENING, BUT PHYSICAL FLOWS ARE CONSTRAINED BY TANKER BACKLOGS, DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRODUCTION SHUT-INS

  • SAYS INVENTORIES REMAIN CRITICAL, EVEN POST‑DEAL, THE GLOBAL MARKET WILL RELY HEAVILY ON STOCK DRAWDOWNS AS FLOWS NORMALISE

  • SAYS LASTING IMPACT OF DEPLETED INVENTORIES, INCOMPLETE SUPPLY RECOVERY SHOULD SEE PRICES RECOVER SOME OF THESE LOSSES IN Q3