Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) scored one of her highest-profile wins of the midterm cycle as Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive she backed in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, narrowly defeated establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens.

The Associated Press called the race Wednesday morning, capping an upset in which he overcame more than $50 million in outside spending behind Stevens, the candidate supported by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Stevens conceded and urged Democrats to rally behind El-Sayed for the general election.

Ocasio-Cortez endorsed El-Sayed in early July, her first contested Senate primary endorsement of the cycle, then joined Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) for a three-city Michigan rally swing two weeks before the election.

Traders Already Have AOC Near the Top for 2028

Polymarket traders currently give Ocasio-Cortez a roughly 14% chance of winning the 2028 Democratic nomination, behind Governor Gavin Newsom at 19% and just below Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) at 15%.

Her odds have risen from around 8% in May, with much of the gain coming in early July, when Vice President JD Vance predicted she would lead the Democratic field.

A July University of New Hampshire poll offered another sign of strength, putting Ocasio-Cortez first at 22%, one point ahead of Pete Buttigieg.

Nate Silver Sees a Warning for Traders

Polling analyst Nate Silver argued in his Silver Bulletin newsletter that the result was less decisive than the headline suggested.

The last seven surveys tracked by The New York Times had El-Sayed ahead by 10 to 19 points, yet he won by about one.

That gap matters, Silver wrote, because a larger victory would have delivered a stronger boost to the progressive wing.

A one-point squeaker instead lands in what he called the establishment’s "second-guessing zone," where moderates can ask whether Stevens might have won with additional support or a different campaign.

The night was mixed for progressives elsewhere, with former Rep. Cori Bush losing a Missouri comeback bid by 22 points.

November Is the Bigger Test

El-Sayed now faces Republican Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate contest. Polymarket traders give the Democrats a 60% chance of holding the seat, but this is down from 68% before the result was announced.

President Donald Trump weighed in Wednesday morning on Truth Social, writing that “The Radical Left Socialist has a real shot” and urging supporters to “VOTE FOR MIKE ROGERS, and make Michigan TOO BIG TO RIG.”

The president also repeated unsupported claims about election fraud in Wayne County, asserting that more ballots are cast there than there are voters.

The real test of the progressive bet, for El-Sayed and for Ocasio-Cortez, is whether El-Sayed can beat Rogers in November.

Photo by Shutterstock