Q1 2026 results and how they frame the story

Apollo Global Management (APO) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of about US$5.0b and a basic EPS loss of US$3.24, as net income excluding extra items came in at a loss of US$1.93b. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$5.49b and EPS of US$0.68 in Q1 2025 to a Q4 2025 peak of US$9.79b and EPS of US$1.44 before this latest quarter. Trailing 12 month EPS sits at US$1.95 on net income of US$1.16b from revenue of US$31.29b. This mix of headline losses alongside positive trailing earnings puts the focus squarely on how margins are holding up and what that means for the durability of the current earnings profile.

See our full analysis for Apollo Global Management.

With the latest figures on the table, the next step is to set these margins and earnings trends against the most widely followed narratives around Apollo to see which views hold up and which may need a rethink.

Margins compress from 13.8% to 3.7%

• Over the last 12 months, Apollo's trailing net profit margin came in at 3.7% compared with 13.8% a year earlier, while trailing 12 month net income was US$1.2b on US$31.3b of revenue.
• Consensus narrative expects areas like industrial and infrastructure financing and retirement solutions to support earnings growth, and the margin picture sets an important backdrop for that view:
  • The five year earnings growth rate of 27.5% per year sits alongside this margin step down, so the consensus case rests on Apollo translating its S&P 500 inclusion and origination focus into more efficient profitability than the trailing 3.7% margin suggests.
  • At the same time, consensus talks about stronger net margins from retirement inflows, which contrasts with the recent deterioration and gives you a clear figure to watch in upcoming reports.

Forecast earnings growth vs shrinking revenue base

• Analysts expect earnings to grow about 26.7% per year over the next three years, reaching US$6.6b of earnings and US$9.72 of EPS by around August 2028, while revenue is projected to decline by 95.4% per year to about US$1.1b over the same period.
• What stands out in the bullish narrative is how much weight it puts on Apollo's business mix to support those earnings, given the revenue path in the numbers:
  • Bulls highlight S&P 500 inclusion, a focus on the global industrial renaissance and scaling origination as reasons earnings could rise, which lines up with the 26.7% earnings growth forecast but sits against an expected revenue decline that would leave a much smaller top line.
  • They also point to profit margins rising from 12.4% today to a very large level in three years, which would need to offset the 95.4% annual revenue decline to get to US$6.6b of earnings on only about US$1.1b of revenue.

Some investors will want to see how this earnings heavy, revenue light path fits with the most optimistic projections before leaning fully into the bullish case 🐂 Apollo Global Management Bull Case

Rich 64.7x P/E beside DCF gap

• The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 64.7x compared with 18.5x for the industry and 20.9x for peers, while the current share price of US$129.53 sits below a DCF fair value of about US$187.85 and an analyst consensus price target of about US$138.35.
• Bears argue that valuation and payout quality are key pressure points, and the figures here give that cautious view some clear anchors:
  • The unstable dividend record and a trailing net margin of 3.7% together suggest investors are paying a premium multiple relative to both industry and peers even as profitability has been weaker than the 13.8% margin a year earlier.
  • The roughly 31% gap to DCF fair value and the earnings growth forecasts are part of the reward side of the story, but critics highlight that a 64.7x P/E leaves less room for disappointment if margins or revenue do not track the forecasts.

For anyone worried about overpaying, these valuation and payout figures provide a useful checklist before leaning too hard into the cautious side of the debate 🐻 Apollo Global Management Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Apollo Global Management on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With bulls and bears both finding support in the numbers, it helps to move quickly from headlines to specifics and test the story yourself with 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

The mix of a 3.7% trailing net margin, an EPS loss in Q1 2026 and a rich 64.7x P/E highlights profitability pressure alongside premium pricing.

If you are uneasy about paying up for thin margins and an earnings loss, use the 44 high quality undervalued stocks to find companies where the price better reflects current fundamentals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.