As you might know, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ARCT) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. Revenues fell -67% short of what the analysts had expected, coming in at US$2.1m. Statutory losses were somewhat milder than expected, coming in with a loss of US$0.95 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings' twelve analysts is for revenues of US$15.7m in 2026, which would reflect a concerning 71% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$4.20 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$38.6m and US$3.95 per share in losses. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The consensus price target fell 12% to US$20.40, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$40.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 81% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 22% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.