Carrier Global (CARR) is back in focus after reporting very large growth in data center related orders, a 35% jump in global Commercial HVAC orders, and reaffirming full year 2026 sales guidance of about US$22b.

Despite a modest 1-day share price move and a 7-day share price return that is down 3.43%, Carrier Global’s year-to-date share price return of 22.51% and 3-year total shareholder return of 59.25% point to momentum that remains largely intact.

If data center cooling and AI infrastructure are on your radar after reading about Carrier, it could be worth checking stocks exposed to similar themes through our 39 AI infrastructure stocks

With Carrier trading around US$65.57, sitting at roughly a 32% discount to one intrinsic value estimate and about 15% below one analyst price target, you have to ask: is there real upside left here, or is the data center and AI story already fully priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.7% Undervalued

Carrier Global’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $71.03 versus the last close at $65.57, which frames the current enthusiasm around data centers and AI within a structured valuation view.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $71.03 for Carrier Global based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $90.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $55.0.

Curious what earnings path, margin lift, and valuation multiple assumptions are needed to bridge the gap between $65.57 today and that higher fair value? The narrative’s model leans on a specific mix of revenue growth, profitability improvements, and a future P/E that is not typical for the wider US Building industry, and those ingredients are where the real story sits.

Result: Fair Value of $71.03 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are real pressure points, including weaker Climate Solutions performance in parts of Asia and Europe, and tariff exposure that could erode the profit story investors are banking on.

Next Steps

With a mix of excitement around AI infrastructure and clear risk flags in the background, it makes sense to review the data yourself and move quickly to an informed view, starting with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Carrier has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not late to the next opportunity.

• Spot potential value with strong fundamentals by reviewing our 46 high quality undervalued stocks for companies that might warrant a closer look.
• Focus on stability and resilience by scanning the 68 resilient stocks with low risk scores to see which stocks score well on risk metrics.
• Hunt for fresh opportunities that the market may be overlooking by checking the screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems before they gain wider attention.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.