Hagerty (HGTY) is back in focus after its Broad Arrow Auctions unit reported €40.8 million in sales and an 87% sell through rate at the 2026 Concorso d’Eleganza Villa d’Este event.

That strong auction result comes at a time when the stock has a 7 day share price return of 7.49%, but the share price is still down 15.97% year to date. The 1 year total shareholder return of 19.46% and 3 year total shareholder return of 22.91% point to steadier long term progress.

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With Hagerty posting revenue of US$1.44b, net income of US$25.67m and a share price that sits below an average analyst price target, it raises the key question: is there still value here or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 50% Overvalued

Hagerty's most followed narrative points to a Fair Value of $11.00, which sits very close to the last close at $11.05 and frames expectations tightly.

Although Hagerty’s in house claims capabilities and proprietary data support a low frequency, specialist book, continued investment in claims, technology, fraud prevention and Enthusiast Plus may keep operating costs elevated. This could temper the pace of adjusted EBITDA growth and delay sustained GAAP profitability.

Curious how a business with modest top line assumptions still lands on that Fair Value. The narrative leans heavily on margin expansion and a very different earnings profile by the end of the forecast window.

Result: Fair Value of $11.00 (OVERVALUED)

However, this hinges on Hagerty keeping operating costs in check and managing concentration in high value auctions. Both factors could evolve very differently compared with current assumptions.

Another Angle On Hagerty's Valuation

The narrative pins Fair Value at $11.00, almost identical to the recent $11.05 share price, yet the current P/E of 43.8x tells a different story compared with the US Insurance industry at 11.3x and peer average of 29.9x. If the fair ratio of 45x is the level the market could move toward, consider whether you are comfortable with how much sentiment would need to remain on Hagerty's side.

Next Steps

The story so far points to mixed sentiment, so it helps to move quickly and test the numbers yourself against your own expectations. To see what is driving optimism, take a closer look at 2 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.