Hercules Capital (HTGC) has drawn fresh attention after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, highlighting record originations, higher revenue and net income, as well as a new supplemental cash distribution alongside its regular payout.

Despite record originations and the new supplemental cash distribution, Hercules Capital’s recent share price return has been weak, with a 30 day share price return of 17.30% and a year to date share price return of 17.39%, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 72.12% points to a very different longer term experience for investors.

If Hercules Capital’s latest move has you rethinking where you look for income and growth, this could be a good moment to see what stands out in our 23 top founder-led companies.

With Hercules Capital trading at $15.58 and screens suggesting an intrinsic value and analyst targets closer to $20, are you looking at a discounted specialty lender, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 26.6% Undervalued

Hercules Capital's most followed narrative points to a fair value of $21.22 against the last close of $15.58, which is a sizeable gap for income focused investors to think about.

Sustained expansion in the technology and life sciences sectors continues to drive record growth in new loan originations and fundings for Hercules, supporting robust revenue and net investment income growth into 2026.

Curious what kind of revenue path, margin profile, and earnings base could support that valuation gap, all while assuming a steady earnings multiple and rising share count? The full narrative lays out the projection playbook in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $21.22 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on tech and life sciences staying healthy and on competition not pushing Hercules toward thinner margins or looser lending terms.

Build Your Own Hercules Capital Narrative

If you see Hercules Capital differently, or just like testing assumptions against the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Hercules Capital research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.