Broker update puts Hesai Group (HSAI) guidance and expansion in focus

Morgan Stanley highlighted that Hesai Group is targeting full year revenue of RMB4.2 billion to RMB4.6 billion and GAAP net profit of RMB500 million to RMB700 million, drawing attention to the stock.

The broker also pointed to Hesai’s push beyond automotive LiDAR, including the Kosmo 3D spatial imaging sensor for intelligent cameras and robotics, as well as potential overseas demand. Together, these factors frame the current investment debate.

Hesai’s latest guidance has arrived during a weak share price period, with the stock down 3.76% over the past day, 14.63% over the past month and 23.42% year to date. The 3-year total shareholder return of 65.38% still points to a stronger long-run record despite a 4.80% decline over the past year.

If this kind of LiDAR and robotics story interests you, it can be worth widening the lens to other automation plays and seeing what stands out in the 33 robotics and automation stocks

With the stock under pressure despite broker attention and a value score of 4, plus a large gap to the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is this a mispriced growth story, or is the market already assigning fair credit for future expansion?

Most Popular Narrative: 31.9% Undervalued

Hesai’s most followed valuation narrative, according to yiannisz, places fair value at $27.07 per share versus the last close of $18.44, highlighting a wide gap that the market has not closed yet.

Hesai’s valuation is increasingly supported by tangible execution and forward visibility rather than expectations alone. Following strong 4Q25 results, management reiterated a confident outlook, underpinned by stable gross margins driven by scale efficiencies and ongoing technology-led cost reductions. This combination is critical, it signals that growth is not coming at the expense of profitability, but alongside improving unit economics.

Want to see how this view gets to that higher price tag? The narrative leans on rapid revenue gains, rising profitability and a rich future earnings multiple. The tension sits between premium pricing today and what those cash flows could look like a few years out. If you want the full set of assumptions, you need to see the complete story behind that fair value line.

Result: Fair Value of $27.07 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to watch for tighter overseas access to LiDAR markets, as well as any slowdown in robotics demand that could challenge the growth-heavy valuation story.

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Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between risk and opportunity, it makes sense to look at the facts yourself and decide quickly where you stand. You can start with the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.