Houlihan Lokey (HLI) is back in focus after reporting record fiscal 2026 revenue, announcing a higher quarterly dividend, and posting a fourth quarter that missed analyst earnings and revenue expectations, creating a mixed signal for investors.

The share price reaction reflects this mixed message, with a 1 day share price return of 4.26% after the earnings and dividend news, but a year to date share price decline of 12.95% alongside a 5 year total shareholder return of 132.71%. This suggests long term holders have still seen strong compounding even as recent momentum has faded.

If you are weighing Houlihan Lokey's outlook against other opportunities, this could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out 18 top founder-led companies

With record annual revenue, softer quarterly numbers, a higher dividend and mixed recent returns, the core question for you is simple: is Houlihan Lokey undervalued after the pullback, or is the stock already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 12% Undervalued

Houlihan Lokey's most followed narrative places fair value at $174.50, above the last close of $153.50. This frames the recent pullback as a valuation gap to interrogate carefully.

Increasing global corporate complexity and cross-border transactions are driving ongoing demand for independent advisory expertise, as evidenced by resilient revenues and continued international hiring and expansion initiatives, these factors are expected to support sustained top-line revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

The fair value call leans heavily on higher revenue, firmer margins and a future earnings base that looks very different to today. Curious which assumptions really carry the model, and how sensitive that $174.50 is to even small changes in growth or profitability? The full narrative lays out those moving parts in detail so you can decide how much of that story you agree with.

Result: Fair Value of $174.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on U.S. driven M&A activity and high compensation costs, so weaker deal volumes or rising expenses could quickly erode the implied upside.

Another View: Is HLI Actually Expensive?

The fair value narrative points to about 12% upside to $174.50, yet the current P/E of 25.1x sits well above the fair ratio of 14.7x and the peer average of 14.1x, even though it is below the US Capital Markets industry at 42.8x. That mix of premiums and discounts raises a simple question: is the bigger risk that the multiple moves toward the fair ratio rather than toward the narrative fair value target?

Next Steps

The split views in this article highlight how reasonable investors can read the same numbers differently. It therefore makes sense to move quickly and pressure test the upside case for yourself with 4 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you want a broader view beyond Houlihan Lokey, now is the time to scan for fresh opportunities that better fit your return and risk preferences.

• Target potential value opportunities by scanning 51 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with prices that may sit below underlying estimates.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.