Backlog-driven interest in MasTec

MasTec (MTZ) is drawing investor attention after reporting a record 18 month backlog of US$19b spanning communications, pipeline infrastructure, clean energy and power delivery, along with guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026.

Despite a 5.2% 1 day share price decline to US$306.74, MasTec’s momentum has been strong, with a 36.69% 90 day share price return and a very large 1 year total shareholder return of 158.22%.

If MasTec’s infrastructure backlog has your attention, this could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with 26 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With MasTec trading at US$306.74 and sitting about 10% below the average analyst price target and around a 5% premium to one intrinsic value estimate, investors may need to consider whether there is still upside potential or whether the market has already priced in the backlog driven growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.7% Undervalued

MasTec’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $336, which is above the last close of $306.74 and frames the recent backlog news in valuation terms.

The fair value for MasTec (MTZ) is calculated using my fair value method by applying a 40x Forward P/E multiple to the projected FY2027 Adjusted EPS of $8.40, reflecting its unique position as a diversified leader in the AI and electrification super-cycles. This results in a fair value of $336.00 USD in local currency. At the current price of $290.00, the stock is trading at a 13.7% discount to its intrinsic value. I arrived at this fair value by weighing the $19B record backlog and the 19% revenue growth guidance against the 8.5% margin expansion target and the $1B operating cash flow projection; this calculation identifies MTZ as a "Core Infrastructure Play" where the market is still catching up to the earnings power of its data center and grid-modernization pivot.

Curious what backs a premium earnings multiple for a construction contractor? The narrative leans heavily on future margin gains and cash generation. Want the full playbook behind that fair value math? The details sit inside the revenue mix, backlog timing, and profitability assumptions that are easy to miss at a glance.

Result: Fair Value of $336 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this story can change quickly if complex turnkey projects run into cost overruns or if regulatory setbacks delay key pipeline and grid work.

Another angle on valuation

The popular fair value narrative leans on a rich 40x forward P/E, yet today MasTec already trades at about 59.8x earnings compared with 37.4x for the US Construction industry, 31x for peers, and a fair ratio of 39.7x. That gap points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations cool. How comfortable are you paying such a premium for this backlog story?

Next Steps

Seeing both the enthusiasm around backlog and the valuation concerns, it helps to check the numbers yourself and move quickly while views are still forming. A good place to start is the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If MasTec is on your radar, do not stop there. Broaden your opportunity set with a few targeted lists that can surface companies you might otherwise miss.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning companies that combine quality with attractive valuations using the 61 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing companies that appear on the 69 resilient stocks with low risk scores and may better match a cautious risk profile.
• Hunt for underfollowed names with strong fundamentals through the screener containing 25 high quality undiscovered gems before others catch on.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.