Turning Point Brands (TPB) is back in focus after first quarter 2026 results, where Modern Oral revenue growth and a raise to full year sales guidance stood out against mixed performance in other segments.

At a share price of $92.71, Turning Point Brands has seen a 7 day share price return of 13.53% and a 30 day share price return of 10.95%. However, the 90 day share price return is down 27.26%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 32.95% and very large 3 year total shareholder return indicate longer term momentum that contrasts with the recent pullback.

If you are looking beyond tobacco and oral nicotine, this could be a useful moment to broaden your watchlist with 19 top founder-led companies

With Modern Oral growth, raised sales guidance, a very large long-term total return, and a recent 90-day pullback, is TPB still undervalued or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 30% Undervalued

With the current share price at $92.71 versus a narrative fair value of $132.50, the gap between market price and modeled value is wide enough to catch attention and worth unpacking further.

Strong growth in the Modern Oral nicotine pouch segment, with sales growing nearly 8x year-over-year and now accounting for 26% of total revenue, positions TPB to capture significant market share in a category projected to reach $10 billion by decade's end; this will drive long-term revenue and margin expansion as the modern oral segment scales and premiumizes.

Want to see what sits behind that bold Modern Oral claim? The narrative leans on brisk revenue expansion, shifting margins and a richer earnings multiple than the broader tobacco sector. Curious which specific assumptions have to line up for that fair value to hold up?

Result: Fair Value of $132.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the story could change quickly if Modern Oral growth underwhelms after higher trade spend, or if new regulation hits nicotine pouches harder than analysts expect.

Another View: Multiples Paint a Tougher Picture

While the narrative fair value points to upside, the current P/E of 32.4x sits above both peers at 28.9x and the global tobacco average at 12.5x, and is roughly in line with the 32.3x fair ratio. That leaves less obvious cushion if modern oral growth or margins fall short.

It is worth asking whether you are comfortable paying a richer multiple today, or if you would rather wait for either earnings to catch up or the price to reset before taking a view on TPB's long term narrative. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on valuation so far? For a clearer picture, look through the data yourself and weigh both sides of the story with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.