Aussie hits multi-year highs amid broad-based carry demand

- The Australian dollar hovered near multi-year highs against the yen, euro, kiwi and sterling on Thursday, helped by broad-based carry demand as bets for more policy tightening crept up on elevated inflation risks.

The Aussie AUDJPY=R consolidated at 114.45 yen, after a 0.4% rise overnight lifted it to a 36-year peak of 114.73. It also hit a new 13-year top on the kiwi at NZ$1.2259 AUDNZD=R on Thursday.

It also scaled a 1-1/2-year high on the euro overnight at 0.6206, and a 2-1/2 year top versus sterling at 0.5375.

"The three consecutive quarter point rate hikes since February, set against none amongst other G10 central banks (now bar Norway) has put daylight between the RBA’s cash rate and all other G10 policy rates," said analysts at the National Australia Bank.

"One reason this is so potent in supporting AUD is because FX volatility has recently fallen back below where it stood at the start of the war, embellishes the carry trade attractions of long AUD positions."

However, they cautioned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June and FX volatility spikes up, the Aussie's carry attraction could unwind quickly.

More than one month after a tenuous ceasefire in the Gulf took effect, Iran and United States have made no progress on an agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The spike in oil prices is feeding inflationary pressures, with hot U.S. CPI and PPI readings leaving no room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates again this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates three times this year to 4.35%, fully reversing the amount of policy easing from 2025, to head off a war-driven energy shock. Swaps suggest a fourth rate hike by August is about 80% priced in.

Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie held firm at $0.7250 AUD=D3, having managed a 0.3% gain overnight. More support lies at $0.7136 and $0.7103, with resistance at the recent four-year high of $0.7277.

The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 slipped 0.1% to $0.5928, after losing 0.3% overnight to mark a third straight day of declines. It has been mostly rangebound between $0.55 and $0.6120 this year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on May 27 and markets bet a rate hike is a real risk, which is about 40% priced in. Policymakers warned in April they would act decisively if inflation heats up.