Australia dollar vulnerable as markets look elsewhere for rate hikes

By Wayne Cole

- The Australian and New Zealand dollars were fighting a rearguard action on Tuesday as risk sentiment remained hostage to uncertainty in the Middle East, while investors added to wagers for rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe.

The European Central Bank is considered certain to hike at a policy meeting on Thursday, while surprising strength in U.S. payrolls has seen markets almost fully priced for a Federal Reserve tightening by the end of the year.

Australia's central bank has already hiked three times this year and is assumed to be near the end of its tightening cycle, suggesting spreads will shift against the Aussie in coming months. 0#AUDIRPR

The Aussie was flat at $0.7044 AUD=D3 on Tuesday, having hit a six-week low of $0.7016 overnight. The break of chart support at $0.7080 was bearish technically and risked a further pullback to $0.6834.

Sentiment was helped by China trade data showing exports and imports beat forecasts in May, a positive for Australia given that the Asian giant is its single biggest export market.

The kiwi dollar idled at $0.5813 NZD=D3 after touching a two-month trough of $0.5779 the previous day. Again, the loss of support at $0.5816 risks a deeper retreat to $0.5681.

In Australia, surveys showed continued gloom among businesses and consumers as rising borrowing costs and high petrol prices squeezed incomes.

Analysts at NAB thought the unfolding slowdown in the economy was enough to forestall another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

"We no longer expect the RBA to hike by 25bp in August, and now see the cash rate peaking at the current rate of 4.35%," said Sally Auld, NAB's chief economist. "The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain."

"If we are correct on the direction of the RBA cash rate, there is scope for decent moves in AUD and front end rates as the market adjusts to a more dovish view."

In New Zealand, data showed a 3.6% bounce in manufacturing sales volumes in the first quarter, with gains seen in 11 of 14 sectors.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has warned that interest rates will likely need to rise soon to keep inflation expectations in check and markets imply a 75% chance of a move in July. 0#NZDIRPR