Australia, NZ dollars dither as Gulf conflict drags on
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, May 26 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars hesitated on Tuesday as renewed U.S. military strikes on Iran cast doubt on a peace deal and tempered a rally in risk assets.
The Aussie paused at $0.7170 AUD=D3, having climbed almost 0.7% the previous session. A break of $0.7184 would open the way to $0.7220 and the recent peak of $0.7277, with support at $0.7080.
The kiwi dollar edged back a touch to $0.5860 NZD=D3, after gaining 0.4% overnight. Resistance lies just ahead at $0.5887, and then $0.5920.
The Aussie's major local hurdle this week is consumer price data for April due on Wednesday, where any downside surprise would further lessen the chance of a near-term rate hike.
Median forecasts are for a 0.6% monthly rise in the CPI. That would pull the annual pace back a touch to 4.4% from 4.6%, though mostly because of a government tax break on petrol. Estimates are unusually wide at 4.1% to 4.8%, suggesting the risk of a surprise is considerable.
The key trimmed mean measure of core inflation is seen rising 0.3% in April, nudging the annual pace up to 3.4% from 3.3%. Forecasts are narrower at 3.3% to 3.5%.
"Survey pricing indicators show a large and rapid surge in input cost pressures that have transmitted from transport and logistics in March to a broader array of industries in April," noted analysts at NAB in a note.
"We currently pencil in a Q2 quarterly trimmed mean outcome of 1.0-1.1%, 3.9% y/y, but there is significant uncertainty around how the current cost shock flows through."
Such an outcome would be uncomfortably high for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which projected 3.8% for core inflation this quarter, and could force another hike in the 4.35% cash rate.
Markets have scaled back the probability of a June rate rise to 10% following a soft jobs report, while an August move is put at 50-50. 0#AUDIRPR
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25%, though with an outside chance of a hike.
Policy makers are also expected to cut their economic growth forecasts, while lifting those for inflation and the cash rate. The last projection had rates at 2.4% by the end of the year while the market is wagering on somewhere between 2.75% and 3.0%. 0#NZDIRPR
