Australian, NZ dollars slip on Gulf uncertainty; bonds await budget

By Wayne Cole

- The Australian and New Zealand dollars eased on Tuesday as endless uncertainty over the Gulf war tested global markets, while bonds awaited the Australian government budget for a gauge on issuance.

The Aussie dipped 0.3% to $0.7223 AUD=D3, having found support around $0.7205 overnight. A break from a four-year top of $0.7277 seen last week would test resistance around $0.72825, with a bull target of $0.7458.

The kiwi dollar retreated 0.2% to $0.5948 NZD=D3, after rallying around $0.5937 overnight. Resistance lies at the recent two-month high of $0.5991, followed by $0.6012 and $0.6076.

"There is evidence to suggest many participants are waiting for the current crisis to end so they can pursue opportunities outside the U.S. dollar," said Elliot Clarke, head of international economics Westpac.

"Supporting this view, risk-off moments have resulted in very limited upside for the dollar," he added.

"Signs of stability and reports of dialogue have buoyed equities globally and seen pro-risk currencies test the upper end of recent ranges against the U.S. dollar – the Aussie is a prime example."

Domestic data from Australia underlined the damage being done by higher energy prices with business sentiment depressed and input costs on the rise.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates three times to 4.35% in a bid to curb inflation, and markets are pricing in a move to 4.60% by September.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers reveals his 2026/27 budget later in the day and is aiming to deliver reform in tax policy, particularly on housing, without adding to inflationary pressures.

Analysts generally look for the 2025/26 budget bottom line to improve by around A$12 billion to a deficit of A$25 billion ($18.09 billion), and for similar shortfalls in the next few years.

Higher corporate tax receipts and cuts to healthcare spending should allow for the smaller deficits, even as the government spends more on defence, housing and fuel reserves.

That might allow scope for the government to trim its A$125 billion borrowing needs for 2025/26, although much of that has already been done.

Analysts look for bond sales of perhaps A$135 billion in 2026/27, less than what the U.S. Treasury borrows in most weeks. Gross debt is relatively low compared with most of Australia's peers at 35% of GDP, underpinning its triple-A rating.


($1 = 1.3824 Australian dollars)