Avantor (AVTR) is back in focus after Longleaf Partners Fund’s Q2 2026 letter flagged what it described as the company’s recent stabilization under new CEO Emmanuel Ligner, highlighting what it called early progress on revenue and free cash flow goals.

At a share price of $10.56, Avantor’s recent 30 day share price return of 12.46% and 90 day share price return of 28.78% contrast with a year to date share price decline of 7.85% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 20.12%. This points to improving short term momentum against a weaker multi year total shareholder return record.

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Bulls argue Avantor’s recent share price momentum and management reset point to a meaningful discount, while bears focus on the current loss and weak multi year returns. So what does the valuation actually suggest right now?

Most Popular Narrative: 50.9% Overvalued

Avantor’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $7.00 per share, which sits well below the recent $10.56 close and frames a cautious valuation gap.

Underperform ratings and a US$7 fair value anchor point highlight concern that Avantor still faces multiple years of growth and margin challenges, which can justify a lower valuation range.

Comments that revenue in real terms is shrinking and margins are compressing, with Q2 unlikely to flatter either metric, underscore the risk that fundamentals may not yet support more optimistic expectations.

Want to see how a cautious revenue path, margin rebuild and a reset future earnings multiple still combine into that $7.00 figure? The key inputs, timing and pricing assumptions behind this narrative are all laid out, including how profit trajectory and required valuation multiples fit together to justify that fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $7.00 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are still clear swing factors, including Avantor’s long term contracts and ongoing cost program, that could lift cash generation and challenge such a cautious $7.00 view.

Another View: Cash Flows Point To Undervaluation

While the leading Avantor narrative leans on cautious earnings assumptions and a lower fair value of $7.00, our DCF model, which focuses on future cash flows, points in the opposite direction and suggests the stock may be trading below its estimated future cash flow value of $15.24. That kind of gap raises a simple question: which set of assumptions do you trust more?

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split on Avantor, this is a moment to move quickly, review the risk and reward data in detail, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.