Avista FY 2025 Earnings Snapshot

Avista (AVA) closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$533 million and basic EPS of US$0.87, underpinned by net income of US$71 million as the utility updated investors on its full year performance. Over the last several quarters, revenue has ranged from US$403 million to US$617 million while quarterly EPS has moved between US$0.17 and US$0.98, giving you a clear view of how the top line and per share earnings have tracked through the year. With trailing 12 month net profit margins edging higher and earnings growth outpacing revenue, this set of results puts operating efficiency and profitability firmly in focus for investors.

See our full analysis for Avista.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to set them against the widely held market narratives around Avista and see which views line up with the data and which might need a rethink.

Margins Steady Around 9.8% Net Level

• On a trailing 12 month basis, Avista reports net income of US$193 million on US$1.964b of revenue, which works out to a 9.8% net margin compared with 9.3% a year earlier.
• Analysts' consensus view points to margin expansion over time, and the current 9.8% margin sits between the 9.2% level referenced in that view and the 11.4% margin that analysts expect. This raises questions about how quickly capital projects and regulatory outcomes will flow through to earnings.
• The consensus narrative highlights multi year capital plans of about US$3b and a pipeline of over 3,000 megawatts of potential new load as drivers for higher margins, while the actual trailing margin improvement from 9.3% to 9.8% is more modest in comparison.
• At the same time, the trailing 12 month earnings growth figure of roughly 7.2% lines up with the long run 7.4% annualized growth the consensus references, so the earnings side of that story is currently closer to the script than the faster margin lift analysts are hoping for.

Earnings Growth Outpaces Slower Revenue

• Over the last year, earnings grew about 7.2% while revenue is forecast at roughly 2% annual growth, and trailing 12 month EPS of US$2.38 on US$1.964b of revenue underscores that most of the progress is coming from profitability rather than rapid top line expansion.
• Supporters of the bullish narrative argue that accelerating electrification and over 3,000 megawatts of large load inquiries can support stronger revenue ahead. However, the current revenue base of about US$1.964b and the 2% revenue growth forecast show a slower build than the more upbeat demand story might suggest.
• The consensus narrative talks about potential revenues of US$2.1b and earnings of US$245.2 million by around 2028, but today Avista is at US$1.964b of revenue and US$193 million of net income, which means a meaningful gap still needs to be closed.
• Analysts also expect EPS of US$2.94 by about 2028 compared with trailing EPS of roughly US$2.38, so while the 7.2% earnings growth rate so far is consistent with that direction, the modest revenue assumptions suggest a heavier reliance on margin and rate outcomes than on pure volume growth.

Skeptics warn that this kind of earnings profile can be vulnerable if large load projects or regulatory approvals slip, so it is worth comparing the current US$2.38 EPS and 7.2% growth to the US$2.94 EPS target investors are building into their expectations before deciding how much risk you are comfortable taking on at a US$40.61 share price relative to the US$41.00 analyst target.

🐻 Avista Bear Case

Valuation Support Versus Cash Flow Strain

• Avista trades on a trailing P/E of 17.1x, which is below the Global Integrated Utilities industry average of 19.1x and well below the peer average of 25.5x, while offering a 4.83% dividend yield that is not well covered by free cash flows and interest payments that are not well covered by earnings over the trailing 12 months.
• Bulls argue that the combination of below peer P/E and expected earnings growth of about 7.4% a year makes the current valuation attractive. However, the flagged risks around cash coverage and interest costs show that the lower multiple and higher yield come with trade offs that investors need to weigh carefully.
• The current share price of US$40.61 is close to the US$41.00 consensus analyst target and only slightly above the DCF fair value estimate of about US$37.92, so there is not a large valuation gap that would offset concerns about dividend and interest coverage.
• At the same time, earnings of US$193 million on US$1.964b of revenue with a 9.8% margin and a 4.83% yield support the idea of a steady utility profile, but the fact that free cash flow does not fully cover

  Next Steps

  To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Avista on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

  Mixed messages in the data, or a balanced risk and reward story that suits your style? Take a moment to review the numbers, pressure test the market narrative, and see how 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs shapes your own conclusion.

  See What Else Is Out There

  Avista's modest revenue growth, tight coverage of dividends and interest, and reliance on regulatory outcomes leave limited room for error if expectations shift.

  If that mix feels a bit stretched for your comfort, you might want to balance it by checking out 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score better on resilience and risk.

  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.