Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 21% over the past week following Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AXSM) latest first-quarter results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$191m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$1.26 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Axsome Therapeutics' 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$985.5m in 2026. This would be a huge 39% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 47% to US$1.92. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$985.0m and losses of US$0.97 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 21% to 223.89619, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Axsome Therapeutics at US$329 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$200. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Axsome Therapeutics'historical trends, as the 55% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 60% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.8% annually. So although Axsome Therapeutics is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Axsome Therapeutics. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Axsome Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.