Bank of Portugal warns of risk emerging from overvalued housing
LISBON, May 27 (Reuters) - Portugal's residential property market shows signs of overvaluation, with a potential correction posing a risk to financial stability, the Bank of Portugal said on Wednesday, as strong foreign demand and tight supply drive prices higher.
It said in its quarterly financial stability report that house prices in Portugal rose 17.6% in 2025 after a 9.1% increase a year earlier, marking the fastest annual increase in the euro zone, where prices grew 5.2% on average.
The central bank said "overvaluation models continue to signal that house prices remain above expected equilibrium levels."
A tighter monetary policy, weaker economic conditions or abrupt global market shifts could trigger a correction in housing prices, potentially reducing collateral values and increasing credit risk.
Foreign buyers accounted for 28% of property transactions in 2025, with Brazil, Angola and France among the main sources, and paid higher average prices than residents, it said.
Portuguese households remain broadly financially sound, with still moderate debt levels and relatively high savings.
However, their risk profile could deteriorate should debt servicing costs rise, it warned.
