Blackstone (BX) closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$4.2b and basic EPS of US$1.30, alongside net income excluding extra items of US$1.0b, setting a clear marker for its latest earnings season. Over the past year, the firm has seen trailing twelve month revenue move from US$12.7b to US$13.9b and basic EPS shift from US$3.49 to US$3.87. This gives investors a fuller picture of how the income statement has evolved into this print. With a trailing net profit margin of 21.7% sitting near last year’s 21.9% and consensus pointing to faster earnings and revenue growth over the next few years, the market’s focus now turns to how durable these margins look against the firm’s growth ambitions.

See our full analysis for Blackstone.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how they line up with the widely followed narratives around Blackstone’s growth, risks and long term earnings power, and where those stories may need to be updated.

TTM earnings growth versus 12.1% five year decline

• Over the last 12 months, earnings grew 8.7%, compared with a five year annualized earnings decline of about 12.1%, so the trailing picture is mixed even though FY 2025 basic EPS sits at US$3.87 on a trailing basis.
• What stands out for the bullish view is how this earnings profile sits alongside forecasts that call for about 22.2% annual earnings growth and 15.7% annual revenue growth over the next three years. This is much faster than the 8.7% trailing earnings growth rate.
  • Supporters point to this step up in expected growth as a reason to focus on the recent improvement from the longer run 12.1% annual decline and to watch how Blackstone converts its US$13.9b of trailing twelve month revenue into higher earnings.
  • Cautious investors may instead highlight the gap between the strong growth forecasts and the still modest 8.7% one year earnings growth, and look for more than one year of progress before treating the longer term decline as fully behind the company.

Strong forecasts meeting only moderate trailing growth can be a turning point for a company like Blackstone, and this set of numbers may change how you read both past performance and future potential. 📊 Read the full Blackstone Consensus Narrative.

AUM expansion supports fee base

• Across FY 2025, assets under management rose from US$1.13b at the start of Q1 to US$1.24b at the end of Q3, with quarterly net inflows between US$29.2b and US$47.8b. This underpins the fee generating base behind the US$13.9b of trailing revenue.
• Supporters of the bullish angle often focus on Blackstone as a global alternatives platform, and the AUM figures give some grounding to that, while still leaving room to question how efficiently that larger pool feeds through to earnings.
  • On one hand, net inflows of US$43.7b in Q3 2025 and US$47.8b in Q1 2025, alongside trailing net income of US$3.0b, show that capital continues to come in and generate profits rather than simply sit idle.
  • On the other hand, the 21.7% trailing net margin sitting only slightly below last year’s 21.9% suggests profitability has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving, so some investors may watch whether future inflows drive higher margins or just maintain the current level.

Rich 37.1x P/E and weak dividend cover

• Blackstone trades on a trailing P/E of 37.1x versus a peer average of 36.2x and a US Capital Markets industry average of 23.9x, while its 2.76% dividend is flagged as not well covered by earnings or free cash flow and the company also carries a high level of debt.
• Critics with a bearish tilt tend to focus on this combination of a premium multiple, thin dividend cover, and leverage, and the current numbers give them several concrete pressure points to track.
  • The stock sits at US$142.94 compared with a DCF fair value of US$74.95 and an analyst price target of US$178.18, so anyone worried about overpayment can point to the valuation gap versus DCF even as others look at the upside to the target.
  • At the same time, the dividend coverage risk and the high debt level mean that even with a 21.7% net margin and US$3.0b of trailing net income, income focused investors may want to understand how sensitive that payout is to swings in earnings or cash flow.

The tension between Blackstone’s premium 37.1x P/E, its uncovered 2.76% dividend, and leverage is exactly the kind of setup that bears watch closely when they assess downside risk. 🐻 Blackstone Bear Case

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Blackstone's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

See What Else Is Out There

For all of Blackstone’s earnings progress, the combination of a 37.1x P/E, uncovered 2.76% dividend, and high debt leaves clear financial pressure points.

If those trade offs feel too tight for your comfort, use our CTA_SCREENER_SOLID_BALANCE_SHEET to focus on companies with stronger balance sheets and greater room to handle stress.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.