Block (SQ) Margin Compression Tests Bullish Earnings Narrative After FY 2025 Results
Block, Inc. Class A XYZ | 0.00 |
Block (SQ) has just wrapped up FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$6.3b and basic EPS of US$0.19, while trailing 12 month EPS stood at US$2.13 on revenue of US$24.2b. Over the past few quarters, revenue has moved from US$6.0b in Q4 2024 to US$6.1b in Q3 2025 and US$6.3b in Q4 2025, with quarterly EPS ranging from US$0.31 in Q1 2025 to US$0.88 in Q2 2025 and US$0.76 in Q3 2025 before landing at US$0.19 in the latest quarter. With trailing net profit margins at 5.4% versus 12% a year earlier, the headline here is about how investors weigh growing scale against pressure on profitability.
See our full analysis for Block.With the headline numbers in place, the next step is to see how this earnings print lines up against the main narratives around Block, and where the story investors follow may differ from what the latest figures actually show.
TTM profit down from US$3.1b to US$1.3b
- On a trailing 12 month basis, net income moved from about US$3.1b in Q3 2025 to US$1.3b by Q4 2025, while trailing EPS went from 5.10 to 2.13 over the same period, even though trailing revenue stayed close to US$24.2b.
- What bulls highlight as strong long term earnings growth of 57.2% per year and forecast growth of about 24% a year sits against this recent drop in trailing profit, so investors need to weigh:
- Whether the current 5.4% trailing net margin, down from 12% a year earlier, lines up with the idea of "structurally higher" profitability in the bullish view.
- How the swing in trailing net income compares with bullish expectations that earnings could reach US$4.3b in the coming years if margins rise again.
Bulls argue that the recent compression in Block's trailing profit metrics might mask a longer term earnings story that still matters for patient investors. 🐂 Block Bull Case
5.4% margin and a richer 32x P/E
- The latest trailing 12 month net profit margin is 5.4% compared with 12% a year earlier, while the stock trades on a trailing P/E of about 32x against a peer average of 25.1x and a US Diversified Financial industry average of 17.1x.
- Bears focus on this mix of thinner margins and a premium multiple, arguing that:
- Lower profitability at 5.4% could leave less room for error if competition or higher compliance and cybersecurity costs continue to weigh on earnings.
- A P/E above both peers and the broader industry makes it harder to argue the stock is cheap if margin pressure from lending credit risk, Bitcoin related revenue swings, or fee competition persists.
Skeptics warn that paying a premium multiple while margins sit at 5.4% could backfire if the profit story does not improve. 🐻 Block Bear Case
Revenue near US$24.2b vs 9.1% growth outlook
- Trailing 12 month revenue is about US$24.2b and is modeled to grow around 9.1% per year, which is below the referenced US market growth rate of 11.5% a year.
- Consensus narrative points to product launches, embedded banking, and crypto features as drivers of higher margin revenue streams, yet the figures raise a few questions:
- Forecast revenue growth at 9.1% that trails the referenced market rate challenges the idea that product momentum automatically translates into faster top line expansion than the broader market.
- The gap between a US$70.14 share price, an analyst price target of about US$86.98, and a DCF fair value of roughly US$87.67 suggests analysts see upside, even though modeled revenue growth is not projected to outpace the referenced market rate.
Next Steps
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Block on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
With bulls and bears both having clear talking points in these results, it makes sense to move quickly and check the underlying data for yourself so you can weigh the trade offs that matter most to you. Then, round out your view by looking through the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
See What Else Is Out There
Block is working with thinner 5.4% margins, a richer 32x P/E than peers, and trailing profit of US$1.3b that is below the earlier US$3.1b level.
If you are concerned about paying up for compressed profitability and a premium multiple, it makes sense to compare this setup with 51 high quality undervalued stocks right now.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
