Options activity in Brighthouse Financial (BHF) has picked up, with the September 18, 2026 $90 call showing some of the highest implied volatility in the market and indicating that traders may be positioning for potential company-specific developments.

At a share price of $65.61, Brighthouse Financial has seen a 90 day share price return of 8.04%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 25.86% suggests momentum has been building over a longer period.

If recent options activity has you thinking about where else capital might move, this is a good moment to widen your search with 18 top founder-led companies

Brighthouse Financial’s recent share gains and the jumpy options pricing put the spotlight squarely on one issue: does the current valuation still offer an attractive skew in potential reward versus risk for new buyers and existing holders?

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Overvalued

Brighthouse Financial last closed at $65.61, slightly above the most followed narrative fair value of $65.50, which treats the Aquarian take private as largely embedded in the price.

The analyst price target for Brighthouse Financial has been reaffirmed at $65, as analysts view the Aquarian deal as already reflected in the valuation and expect the transaction to proceed with Brighthouse ultimately being taken private.

Want to see what has to happen after the Aquarian deal for that fair value to hold up? Revenue, margins and profit expectations all shift meaningfully in this narrative. The key is how much earnings power is built into those long range assumptions, and what kind of valuation multiple that implies on the other side.

Result: Fair Value of $65.50 (OVERVALUED)

However, the Brighthouse Financial narrative could be knocked off course if earnings volatility from market sensitive annuities persists, or if capital constraints tighten further.

Another View on Brighthouse Financial’s Valuation

The most followed narrative has Brighthouse Financial as roughly 20% overvalued at $65.61 versus a $65.50 fair value. Yet our DCF model points in the opposite direction, with the stock trading about 62% below an estimated future cash flow value of $173.48, which is a wide gap for investors to think through.

If the cash flow assumptions behind that gap matter to your thesis, it is worth understanding how the SWS DCF model is built and what needs to go right for that higher value to hold up over time. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Next Steps

If the mixed signals around Brighthouse Financial leave you uncertain, it makes sense to move quickly, test the underlying assumptions and weigh the potential upside for yourself. To see what optimistic investors are focusing on, review the 3 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.