Calumet (CLMT) has been in focus after a sharp stock move that followed stronger second quarter 2026 results, improved leverage metrics, and firm crude prices linked to fresh risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

Calumet's share price has swung sharply over 2026, with a 7 day share price return of 20.9% and a 90 day share price return of 52.1%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is very large. This suggests strong momentum following the second quarter earnings update, deleveraging moves, and support from higher crude prices.

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For Calumet, the recent surge sits at the crossroads of improved balance sheet work and shifting sentiment around crude and renewables. The key question is how much of this move reflects lasting business progress rather than a momentum trade on the stock price.

Most Popular Narrative: 23% Overvalued

Calumet's most followed narrative points to a fair value of $38.80, which sits below the recent $47.72 close. As a result, the valuation work leans cautious on upside.

The MaxSAF 150 project is on track to start up in the first half of 2026, enabling Calumet to produce 120-150 million annual gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at relatively low capital costs. This is expected to capture premiums of $1-$2/gallon over renewable diesel and tap into surging mandated and voluntary SAF demand globally, which is likely to drive a material step-up in revenues and EBITDA margin expansion once operational.

Analysts are building in faster revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. The full narrative shows how those moving parts connect into that $38.80 fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $38.80 (OVERVALUED)

However, Calumet still faces two key overhangs: ongoing reliance on supportive renewable fuel policy and a heavy debt load that depends on smooth refinancing and asset plans.

Another View on Calumet’s Valuation

While the analyst narrative points to Calumet trading above the $38.80 fair value, the Simply Wall St DCF model tells a different story. On that framework, the stock at $47.72 sits below an estimated future cash flow value of $73.02, which screens as undervalued. Which story do you think fits your assumptions better?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Calumet for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 50 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Given the mixed signals around Calumet so far, it makes sense to move quickly and test the numbers and risks yourself. To see how current concerns balance against potential upsides, review the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Calumet?

If Calumet has caught your attention, do not stop there. Use this moment to widen your watchlist and pressure test your thinking against other opportunities.

• Scan for potential mispricings by reviewing companies that screen as strong value candidates through the 50 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritise resilience and capital strength by checking stocks highlighted in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (50 results).
• Get ahead of the crowd by reviewing the screener containing 18 high quality undiscovered gems before others catch on.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.