ONEOK (OKE) has drawn fresh attention after raising its 2026 earnings guidance, now targeting net income of US$3.41b to US$3.79b and earnings per diluted share with a midpoint of approximately US$5.68.

ONEOK's higher 2026 earnings guidance sits against a share price of US$88.24 that has risen 18.7% year to date. The 1 year total shareholder return of 22.89% and 5 year total shareholder return of 119.41% point to momentum that has built over time, even with a recent 1 day share price decline of 2.83%.

If this kind of guidance upgrade has you thinking about where else growth stories might emerge, it could be a good time to scan 36 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

Bulls point to ONEOK's guidance lift, dividend track record and recent earnings beat. Bears focus on how much of that story is already reflected in a US$88 share price. The valuation numbers help show which side has more support.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.6% Undervalued

ONEOK's most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value of about $95.48 against the last close of $88.24, which frames the guidance upgrade in a wider earnings story.

Ongoing expansions and capital investments in key areas like the Permian and Delaware Basins, for example new processing plants and pipeline connections, position ONEOK to capture incremental fee based volumes and benefit from robust U.S. shale production, leading to higher top line growth and enhanced earnings stability. Strong integration and synergy capture following recent acquisitions, for example EnLink, Magellan, Medallion, are driving operating leverage and margin expansion, with further cross asset optimization and record blending volumes anticipated to increase net margins and support double digit EBITDA growth in the near to medium term.

Want to know what sits underneath that valuation gap for ONEOK? The narrative leans heavily on throughput, margins and a richer earnings mix. The key is how those pieces compound over time.

Result: Fair Value of $95.48 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the ONEOK story also carries risk, including commodity spread volatility that can pressure margins and higher debt from acquisitions that could limit flexibility.

Next Steps

With ONEOK attracting both optimism and concern, this is a moment to look through the figures yourself and decide how convincing the story feels. To balance the upside potential against the flagged issues, start by weighing the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond ONEOK?

If ONEOK has sharpened your focus on opportunities, do not stop here. Fresh ideas often come from comparing quality, risk and income across a wider watchlist.

• Target steady compounders by checking stocks in the 53 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their financial profile.
• Prioritise resilience by reviewing companies in the 82 resilient stocks with low risk scores that pair lower risk scores with business models built for staying power.
• Spot tomorrow's standouts early by scanning the screener containing 18 high quality undiscovered gems before they draw broader market attention.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.