Carlyle Group (CG) just posted its FY 2025 numbers with Q4 revenue of US$1.7b and basic EPS of US$1.00, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of US$4.0b and EPS of US$2.25. Over the last few quarters, revenue has ranged from US$125.6m in Q3 2025 to US$2.4b in Q3 2024, while quarterly EPS has moved between roughly US$0.00 and US$1.67, giving investors a wide set of outcomes to assess. With net profit margin at 20.1% versus 21.5% a year earlier, this latest print puts profitability, quality, and sustainability in clear focus.

See our full analysis for Carlyle Group.

With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up with the prevailing stories about Carlyle Group, highlighting where the numbers support the narratives and where they push back.

AUM climbs by US$35.8b alongside US$10.4b inflows

• Across FY 2025, assets under management rose from US$441.0b to US$476.9b, helped by US$10.4b of net inflows, which ties directly to the bullish focus on expanding Global Credit, insurance solutions, and wealth products as long-term growth drivers.
• Supporters of the bullish view point to this combination of AUM growth and inflows as evidence that Carlyle is capturing demand for alternative assets, while the actual FY 2025 earnings of US$808.7m and fee heavy business mix mean investors still need to see how much of that larger asset base reliably converts into future cash earnings.
  • On the bullish side, Global Credit and Global Investment Solutions are highlighted as segments benefiting from a large addressable market and broader fundraising, which lines up with the US$35.8b AUM increase over the last twelve months.
  • At the same time, the 20.1% net margin and the history of a 31% annualized earnings decline over five years keep a question on how durable those higher assets and fees are for long term profit growth.

Over FY 2025, bulls argue this combination of AUM growth, new products, and buyback plans could reset Carlyle's earnings power if fee related earnings and margins keep improving, but the track record of weaker earnings and current cash coverage flags means you still have to judge how much of that story you are comfortable underwriting before leaning too hard into the upside case. 🐂 Carlyle Group Bull Case

Wide swings in quarterly EPS feed bearish concerns

• Quarterly EPS ranged from about US$0.00 in Q3 2025 to US$1.67 in Q3 2024, with FY 2025 net income of US$808.7m and a 20.1% margin, which gives bears concrete evidence of earnings volatility and ties into the five year earnings decline of 31% per year.
• Critics who lean bearish argue that this kind of earnings pattern, combined with high non cash components and debt and dividend coverage issues, fits a story where fee and performance income are harder to sustain, even though the trailing twelve month revenue of US$4.0b and US$49.01 share price do not yet reflect a collapse in the business.
  • Bears highlight that net margin slipped from 21.5% a year ago to 20.1% and that operating cash flow is flagged as not covering debt well, which sits uncomfortably next to reported profit that already includes a large non cash portion.
  • They also point to the dividend yield of about 2.86% not being covered by free cash flow, so if EPS swings again toward the low end of the recent US$0.00 to US$1.67 range, management may have fewer easy levers to support both payouts and growth investments.

Skeptics warn that unless cash flow and margins start to look more consistent with the US$808.7m of trailing earnings, the wide EPS swings you see in FY 2025 could keep pressure on how much investors are willing to pay for the stock over time. 🐻 Carlyle Group Bear Case

DCF fair value gap vs current US$49.01 price

• The stock trades at US$49.01 against a DCF fair value of about US$105.34 and a 21.8x P/E, which is below both peer and industry P/E averages of 48.4x and 42.8x, even though analysts expect revenue to grow around 12.6% and earnings around 11.2% per year.
• Consensus narrative notes that this mix of a wide DCF gap, a 61.50 analyst price target, and mid teens style growth forecasts looks supportive on paper, yet the same data set also shows a five year 31% annualized earnings decline and earnings that lean heavily on non cash items, so the market may be giving a discount while it waits for growth and cash coverage to line up.
  • On one hand, trading below both DCF fair value and the 61.50 target suggests investors are not paying up despite forecasts for revenue and EPS growth, which fits with concerns about cash flow coverage of debt and the dividend.
  • On the other hand, if revenue of US$4.0b and EPS of US$2.25 are the base for the next few years of growth, any future period where cash generation catches up with reported profit could change how that 21.8x P/E is viewed relative to peers on 48.4x and an industry on 42.8x.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Carlyle Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Seen enough debate between bull, bear, and consensus views to sense both risk and upside here, but still on the fence yourself? Do not wait for the market to tell you what to think. Instead, drill into the key issues and form your own view with these 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

Carlyle Group's wide EPS swings, cash flow coverage concerns, and a dividend not covered by free cash flow all point to higher risk and less predictable income.

If that mix makes you uneasy, shift your focus toward companies with steadier fundamentals and use the 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores to quickly spot stocks with more resilient risk profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.