CEE MARKETS-Forint at fresh high on Iran hopes, Czech central bank chief sees case for rate hike

P10, INC.

P10, INC.

PX

0.00

- Hungary's forint hit its strongest level since September 2021 and led central European currencies higher on Friday on hopes for a deal to end the Iran war, while the crown neared five-month highs after the Czech central bank chief said a rate hike was a "live possibility".

President Donald Trump on Thursday said the United States and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, but Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement.

"Yesterday's headlines about a possible end to the U.S.-Iran conflict quickly switched the market back into risk-on mode," ING said.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= had gained 0.75% against the euro to 352.40 by 0941 GMT, just off a session high of 352.15.

According to ING, a quick rally in the forint closer to 350 per euro could convince the National Bank of Hungary to speed up easing, with the next decision coming in two weeks.

"However, at this point, the market will instead look for confirmation of yesterday's headlines and consider whether this is just short-term relief," it wrote in a note.

Brokerage Equilor said the next support level for the euroforint after 353 would be 350.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was up almost 0.2% against the euro to trade at 24.167, just shy of a high of 24.150 hit this week.

"The Czech crown continues to strengthen slowly," Czech bank CSOB said.

"On the one hand, it is helped by the fall in oil prices. On the other hand, the chances of interest rate increases in the Czech Republic are growing."

An interest rate rise this month is a "live possibility," but not a certainty, Czech central bank Governor Ales Michl was quoted as saying in an interview with Bloomberg published on Friday.

Earlier, board member Jan Prochazka told Reuters the prospect of a bump in Czech inflation alongside a subdued economy will create a balanced debate between stable interest rate policy and a 25-basis-point hike at the central bank's meeting next week.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= was up 0.3% at 4.2455 per euro, continuing to range-trade.

"The fading expectations of interest rate hikes by the (Monetary Policy Council) have been hurting the zloty in recent days ... This reduces the zloty's attractiveness, particularly against currencies in the region," analysts at Poland's state-run development bank BGK said.


CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1141 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.1670

24.2050

+0.16%

-0.00%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

352.4000

355.0400

+0.75%

+9.07%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2455

4.2590

+0.32%

-0.70%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.2346

5.2404

+0.11%

-2.68%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2600

117.3600

+0.09%

+0.03%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2572.01

2529.4500

+1.68%

-4.23%

Budapest

.BUX

135385.02

133591.93

+1.34%

+21.93%

Warsaw

.WIG20

3720.56

3679.54

+1.11%

+16.85%

Bucharest

.BETI

30329.67

29838.11

+1.65%

+24.10%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

4.0430

-0.0470

+144bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.2440

-0.1080

+154bps

-6bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.7910

-0.0830

+181bps

-4bps







Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.2590

-0.0800

+166bps

-1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1120

-0.1710

+241bps

-12bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.6000

-0.0940

+262bps

-5bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.99

4.17

4.28

3.62

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

3.93

4.03

4.21

3.85

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices