Century Aluminum (CENX) put up steady top line numbers in FY 2025, with fourth quarter revenue of US$633.7 million and basic EPS of US$0.02, capping a trailing twelve month run of US$2.5 billion in revenue and EPS of US$0.42. Over the past reported periods, quarterly revenue has moved in a tight band between US$628.1 million and US$633.9 million, while basic EPS has ranged from a quarterly loss of US$0.05 to a high of US$0.30. This sets up a story where investors are weighing solid revenue scale against shifting profitability and thinner margins.

See our full analysis for Century Aluminum.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the key narratives around growth potential, risks, and where sentiment might be getting ahead of or behind the fundamentals.

Margins Shrink despite US$2.5b in Sales

• Over the last 12 months, Century Aluminum generated US$2.5b of revenue with US$40 million of net income excluding extra items, which works out to a 1.6% net margin compared with 14.4% the prior year and includes a one off US$7.7 million loss.
• Bulls point to strong growth forecasts, yet the current margin profile keeps that optimism on a tight leash.
  • Consensus narrative highlights forecast earnings growth of about 45.5% per year and revenue growth of 12.6% a year, while trailing basic EPS on a last twelve month basis sits at US$0.42 and quarterly EPS swung from a loss of US$0.05 in Q2 2025 to US$0.30 in Q1 2025 before easing back to US$0.02 in Q4.
  • For a bullish view that margins can expand meaningfully, the drop from a 14.4% margin to 1.6% and the presence of a one off charge means investors need to decide how much of the pressure is temporary versus part of the normal earnings pattern.

High P/E of 149.9x Meets Compression in Profitability

• The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 149.9x, which is well above the US Metals & Mining industry at 22.6x and a peer average of 14.9x, even though trailing net margin is 1.6% on US$40 million of net income.
• Bears argue that this combination of a high multiple and thinner margins leaves little room for disappointment.
  • Bearish narrative points to policy reliance and capital intensive growth projects, and the current 149.9x P/E together with a lower margin base gives that view support because the valuation is already rich compared with sector benchmarks.
  • At the same time, analysts shown are implying about 31% upside to their targets from the current US$60.58 share price, so investors are weighing those targets against the much higher multiple and recent margin compression that bears focus on.

On top of this, skeptics who focus on policy risk and execution hurdles may see the rich P/E as reinforcing the need to stress test the cautious case before committing fresh capital. 🐻 Century Aluminum Bear Case

Growth Forecasts and DCF Gap Pull in the Other Direction

• Analysts have a consensus price target of US$79.33 versus the current US$60.58 share price and the stock is also described as trading well below a DCF fair value of about US$276, alongside forecast earnings growth of roughly 45.5% per year and revenue growth of 12.6% per year.
• Supporters of the bullish narrative see these figures as pointing to meaningful upside, but the earnings track record adds some important qualifiers.
  • Trailing twelve month basic EPS moved from US$3.30 to US$0.42 between Q3 2024 and Q4 2025, and quarterly net income excluding extra items went from US$44.8 million in Q3 2024 to US$2 million in Q4 2025, which contrasts with the strong future earnings assumptions that bullish analysts use.
  • With the DCF fair value far above the market price and analysts expecting earnings to grow much faster than the wider US market at 16.4% per year, investors who lean bullish still have to reconcile that optimistic growth profile with the much slimmer trailing profit base and the high current P/E.

For anyone trying to weigh those upside projections against the recent earnings volatility, it helps to see how the optimistic case ties each growth driver back to concrete numbers and project milestones. 🐂 Century Aluminum Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Century Aluminum on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With sentiment clearly split between risks and rewards, this is the moment to look through the numbers yourself and pressure test both sides of the story. To help with that, start by weighing the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

Century Aluminum pairs a very high 149.9x P/E with thin 1.6% margins and a sharp drop in trailing EPS, which raises valuation and earnings quality questions.

If you want stocks where pricing and profitability look more aligned, it is worth checking companies in the 51 high quality undervalued stocks to see if they better fit your risk and return expectations.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.