Citi sees aluminium prices bottoming before recovering by Sept-Dec

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Citigroup Inc.

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- Citi said on Thursday it sees aluminium prices bottoming over the next month, before it recovers to between $3,300 to $3,500 per metric ton between September and December.

  • Citi said its view is supported by a more dovish Fed, lower real rates, rising demand view and lower inventories in days of consumption.

  • The bank says the recent sell-off reflects weaker-than-expected realised demand, slower visible inventory draws, easing geopolitical risks, a large unwind in investor and physical positioning, and rising expectations of future supply.

  • Aluminium has fallen about 20% from roughly $4,450 a tonne over the past month, challenging the bull market that began just over a year ago, the bank added.

  • Still, Citi does not see aluminium as an attractive bear trade from here, arguing that the market had entered the recent shock in deficit and that returning supply was unlikely to arrive quickly enough to offset demand growth.

  • The bank said China's enforcement of its capacity cap remained a supportive factor, while concerns over a rapid return of Middle East supply appeared overstated.