It's been a mediocre week for Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ:CLNE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 19% to US$1.58 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenue hit US$106m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.07 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Clean Energy Fuels after the latest results.

Following last week's earnings report, Clean Energy Fuels' five analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$436.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 39% to US$0.26. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$439.9m and US$0.25 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 10% to US$4.34, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Clean Energy Fuels, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$7.00 and the most bearish at US$2.30 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.8% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Clean Energy Fuels' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Clean Energy Fuels' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Clean Energy Fuels' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Clean Energy Fuels going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Clean Energy Fuels is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.