Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is back in focus after Q1 2026 results showed higher revenue and shipments, a narrower adjusted loss, and a positive swing in adjusted EBITDA, with management pointing to positive free cash flow from Q2.

That backdrop helps explain why the share price has fallen 24.19% year to date and slipped over the past week, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is 35.48% and longer term returns remain weak.

If this kind of volatility has you looking beyond a single steel producer, it could be a good moment to scan other materials names through our list of 8 top copper producer stocks

With the stock down 24.19% year to date, yet up 35.48% over 1 year and trading only slightly below the average analyst target, investors now have to ask if Cleveland-Cliffs is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 3.3% Undervalued

With Cleveland-Cliffs closing at $10.31 against a narrative fair value of $10.67, the latest valuation work frames the stock as modestly discounted while still closely tied to fundamentals.

Strategic footprint optimization, internal coke and feedstock integration, and direct moves to lower fixed costs and SG&A have already resulted in unit cost reductions. Ongoing initiatives are expected to deliver further cost savings, driving enhanced free cash flow, lower leverage, and a structurally higher earnings profile through improved operating margins.

There is a full playbook sitting behind that fair value. Revenue growth assumptions, margin rebuild, and a future earnings multiple all need to line up. Want to see exactly how those pieces are stitched together, and which expectations have the tightest margin for error?

Result: Fair Value of $10.67 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on steel tariffs staying in place, and on Cleveland-Cliffs managing leverage and capex needs as its blast furnace focused model faces rising decarbonization pressure.

Another View: DCF Paints A Harsher Picture

There is a catch to that 3.3% upside story. While the narrative fair value sits at $10.67, the SWS DCF model points to a future cash flow value of $6.09. This frames Cleveland-Cliffs as expensive on that lens and raises the question of which yardstick you trust more.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Cleveland-Cliffs for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 50 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on value and risk here, so if the story feels nuanced, this is a good moment to review the details yourself and weigh both sides with our 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop with one stock. Make sure you are seeing what else the market is offering, or you risk missing opportunities that better fit your goals.

• Target potential bargains by scanning companies that combine quality fundamentals with attractive pricing through our 50 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritise resilience with companies that carry stronger balance sheets and fundamentals using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results).
• Hunt for overlooked opportunities by reviewing the screener containing 22 high quality undiscovered gems that may not yet be on most investors' radars.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.