ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) opened the 2026 earnings season with Q1 results anchored by recent quarterly revenue of US$103.7 million and basic EPS of US$0.76 in Q4 2025, against a trailing twelve month net income of US$74.2 million. Over the last few quarters, revenue has moved from US$61.8 million in Q3 2024 to US$66.7 million in Q1 2025 and then to US$103.7 million in Q4 2025. Over the same periods, basic EPS has shifted from US$0.41 to US$0.49 and then to US$0.76, giving investors a clearer view of the earnings path into the latest numbers. With a trailing net profit margin of 22.2% compared to 27% a year earlier and a US$30.4 million one-off loss in the last 12 months, this set of results puts earnings quality and margin resilience firmly in focus for the new quarter.

See our full analysis for ConnectOne Bancorp.

With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to set these results against the dominant market stories around ConnectOne Bancorp to see which narratives the numbers support and which they start to challenge.

Loan Book Climbs Above US$11.4b

• Total loans reached US$11.46b at Q4 2025, up from US$8.21b at Q1 2025 and US$8.28b at Q4 2024. This highlights how much bigger the balance sheet is now compared with a year earlier.
• Analysts' consensus view highlights growth opportunities from the expanded New York, New Jersey and Long Island footprint, and that sits alongside this larger loan book:
  • The merger driven scale up is reflected in loans moving from about US$8.1b in Q3 2024 to over US$11.1b by Q2 2025. This aligns with the idea of a wider client base feeding more lending.
  • Consensus also points to strong pipelines in commercial, SBA, construction and residential loans. The current US$11.46b loan balance gives a concrete base for that pipeline to work from.

Bulls point to merger scale and loan growth as key drivers for the story, so it can be useful to see how that thesis is laid out in full before deciding how compelling it looks. 🐂 ConnectOne Bancorp Bull Case

Net Interest Margin Holding Above 3%

• Net interest margin sits at 3.11% on both Q3 2025 quarterly data and the trailing twelve month view at Q4 2025, versus 2.72% on the trailing view a year earlier. This shows a higher spread on the loan and deposit book than in the prior year data.
• Bears focus on pressure from higher compliance and integration costs after crossing US$10b in assets, and this margin picture partly tests that concern:
  • Even with total loans at US$11.46b and the bank operating at a larger scale, the 3.11% net interest margin in Q3 2025 is above the 2.67% level seen in Q3 2024. This does not point to margin compression in the figures provided.
  • The bearish worry is that rising regulatory and operating expenses could squeeze profitability. However, the 22.2% trailing net profit margin and higher net interest margin versus the prior year data show that, so far, core spreads have stayed intact in the numbers available.

Skeptics often lean on cost and regulation risks here, so checking how those arguments line up with the latest margin and profit data can help you judge how strong the cautious case really is. 🐻 ConnectOne Bancorp Bear Case

Valuation Signals Pull In Different Directions

• The shares trade at US$28.93 with a P/E of 19.6x, above the US Banks average of 11.7x and peer average of 14.3x. A DCF fair value of US$68.53 and an analyst target of US$31.30 both sit above the current price in this dataset.
• What stands out is how this mix of numbers both supports and complicates the bullish story around growth and scale:
  • On one side, the DCF fair value of US$68.53 and a trailing 12 month dividend yield of 2.49% are used by optimists to argue there could be material value on offer versus the US$28.93 share price.
  • On the other, the 19.6x P/E, multi year average earnings decline of 17.6% per year and a US$30.4m one off loss in the last 12 months give bears concrete figures to point to when they question how much investors are paying for that growth story.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for ConnectOne Bancorp on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With a mix of bullish and cautious signals running through these numbers, it makes sense to look at the full picture yourself and move quickly while sentiment is still forming. You can start with the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

The picture here includes a 19.6x P/E versus sector averages, a multi year earnings decline of 17.6% per year, and a US$30.4m one off loss.

If those earnings and valuation pressures give you pause, it makes sense to compare with companies screened for stronger value signals through the 55 high quality undervalued stocks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.