Long term unemployment in the U.S. has climbed to more than 1.8 million people, up 55% from 2023, and the pressure on household budgets is starting to show in everyday spending. For investors, that kind of strain can change how consumer staples stocks behave, as shoppers adjust what goes into their grocery carts and bathroom cabinets. This article looks at how that backdrop might affect larger, established consumer staples companies, and highlights 3 stocks from our screener that could be positioned on the right side of these trends to help you decide which opportunities deserve a closer look.

Bunge Global (BG)

Overview: Bunge Global is a global agribusiness and food company that buys, stores, transports, processes, and sells grains and oilseeds such as soybeans, corn, wheat, and softseeds, supplying essential ingredients to the food, animal feed, and biofuel industries worldwide.

Operations: Bunge Global generates most of its revenue from Soybean Processing and Refining at US$39.9b, followed by Grain Merchandising and Milling at US$25.0b, Softseed Processing and Refining at US$15.2b, and Tropical Oils and Specialty Ingredients at US$5.1b.

Market Cap: US$20.7b

Bunge Global stands out in consumer staples because it sits at the heart of global food supply, processing core staples like grains and oilseeds that households rely on even when budgets are tight. The completed Viterra acquisition has turned it into a larger agribusiness platform, with management targeting higher earnings over time from cost synergies and new projects, although recent results show that margins can still come under pressure. Forecasts for strong earnings growth contrast with slower revenue growth and past earnings declines, so execution on integration, capital spending and biofuel policy exposure will matter. For investors, the key issue is whether these moving parts, combined with recent price and earnings momentum, justify a closer look at Bunge Global now or a more cautious wait and see approach.

Rising earnings targets and integration promises put Bunge Global at the center of the food supply story, but the real tension is whether execution can keep pace with expectations. Start with the analyst forecasts for Bunge Global that could change how you view the risk reward trade off.

Marks and Spencer Group (LSE:MKS)

Overview: Marks and Spencer Group is a long established UK retailer that sells clothing, homeware, beauty products, food and everyday essentials through its stores, online channels and international operations, including a partnership with Ocado.

Operations: Marks and Spencer Group generates most of its revenue from Food at £9.7b and Fashion, Home & Beauty at £3.8b, with additional contributions from Ocado at £3.2b and International at £543.3m.

Market Cap: £7.9b

Marks and Spencer Group sits at the intersection of UK consumer staples and discretionary spending, which can be important when long term unemployment pressures household budgets. The food business and Ocado partnership give it exposure to recurring grocery spend, while investments in store rotation, supply chain upgrades and digital can support the longer term earnings growth that analysts are forecasting, even as current net margins and return on equity remain modest. The stock is trading well below one estimate of fair value, yet carries a relatively high P/E and relies on cost savings and margin improvement to support that view. For investors, the central issue is whether today’s mix of progress, pressure and valuation leaves enough cushion if execution slips.

Marks and Spencer Group’s turnaround story, with food and Ocado driving recurring spend, is colliding with a relatively high P/E and modest margins. See how the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs might change what you think is really priced in.

United Natural Foods (UNFI)

Overview: United Natural Foods is a major distributor of natural, organic, specialty and conventional groceries and household products across the U.S. and Canada, supplying everything from fresh produce and frozen foods to wellness, personal care and private label items for grocery chains and retailers.

Operations: United Natural Foods generates most of its revenue from the Natural segment at US$16.9b and the Conventional segment at US$13.3b, with Retail contributing US$2.2b and eliminations of US$1.1b.

Market Cap: US$2.8b

United Natural Foods sits at the core of North American food supply at a time when long term unemployment and stretched budgets are pushing shoppers toward value, private label and food at home. These are areas where the company has deep exposure across natural and conventional channels. Analysts have highlighted expected earnings improvements driven by efficiency gains, network optimization and technology investments, even though the company is currently loss making and relies heavily on external borrowing with interest costs that are not yet well covered. There is also a wide gap between the current share price and one estimate of fair value, along with insider selling that complicates the picture. United Natural Foods is therefore a stock where the balance between potential margin recovery and funding and execution risk is an important consideration for patient investors.

United Natural Foods’ push for margin recovery, with losses and debt still in the picture, can look like a story half told. Start with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs (1 is major!) to see what might be hiding behind the funding pressures.

The three consumer staples stocks in this article are only a starting point, with our full Consumer Staples Stocks screener surfacing 33 more larger cap companies across the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand that come with equally compelling stories around earnings potential, balance sheet strength and valuation support. Use Simply Wall St to identify and analyze the specific catalysts and narratives that matter to you so you can focus on the highest conviction consumer staples opportunities rather than sifting through the entire sector on your own.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.