Deepway’s $300 million growth round and FTAI Infrastructure’s $45 million acquisition of Tidewater Logistics stood out as notable Q2 deals, even as private equity activity in logistics slowed sharply.

Driven by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and rising fuel costs, deal value plunged 57.2% quarter-over-quarter to $6.4 billion as investors shied away from larger transactions, PitchBook reported. However, deal count rose 12.2% to 55 (up 18.6% trailing-12-months), showing investors remain active through smaller, targeted bets.

This pullback contrasts with improving operational fundamentals. Trucking, for instance, showed signs of emerging from a multiyear freight recession—spot rates topped contract rates for the first time since 2021–22, while tender rejections hit their highest levels since 2022 to give carriers renewed pricing power.

Supply Tightening Drives Freight Recovery

The recovery has been driven largely by tighter supply rather than a surge in demand. Carrier exits, slower fleet expansion, tighter equipment financing and increased regulatory enforcement have reduced capacity, Pitchbook noted. Truckload spot rates were up 16.5% year over year by the end of the first quarter, compared with a 5.2% increase in the fourth quarter.

Yet trucking’s share of PE deal value fell sharply in Q2, dropping to 12.9% from 40.2% in the first quarter. Air and rail led the market, accounting for 26.6% and 28.9% of deal value, respectively.

Warehousing is also showing signs of stabilization after several years of post-pandemic oversupply.

U.S. industrial vacancy rates were falling in the first half of 2026, while leasing activity reached its highest quarterly level since mid-2022. Demand is increasingly concentrated in modern, large-format facilities with the space and power needed for automation, while AI data-center construction is providing another source of demand.

Technology Adding Another Layer to the Landscape

Warehouse automation is gaining traction, while transportation management systems are beginning to connect directly with large language models, allowing users to query freight, carrier and cost data without relying on IT or data-science teams.

Investors, however, remain focused on cost management and are becoming more selective about AI spending, weighing which technologies deliver measurable returns against products simply adding AI features.

Exits provided another bright spot, rising 22.2% to 22 during the quarter and remaining dominated by buyouts.

Overall, PitchBook’s data points to a logistics market where underlying industry fundamentals are improving in some areas, but geopolitical and economic uncertainty continues to make investors more cautious about putting large amounts of capital to work.

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