It's been a mediocre week for Deluxe Corporation (NYSE:DLX) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to US$26.83 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$538m were what the analysts expected, Deluxe surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.77 per share, an impressive 35% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering Deluxe provided consensus estimates of US$2.06b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a discernible 3.5% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 23% to US$2.83. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.88 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The consensus price target rose 6.5% to US$32.67, with the analysts apparently satisfied with the business performance despite lower revenue forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Deluxe analyst has a price target of US$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$31.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.7% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 1.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Deluxe is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Deluxe going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Deluxe is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.