• In late May 2026, ONE Gas reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of US$2.11, with revenues and natural gas volumes delivered declining from the prior year while management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and long-term adjusted net income growth targets.
• At the same time, ONE Gas continued to grow its customer base, adding new connections even as delivered gas volumes fell, highlighting a tension between customer expansion and near-term usage trends.
• We’ll now explore how the earnings miss and weaker gas volumes may reshape ONE Gas’s previously outlined long-term growth narrative.

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ONE Gas Investment Narrative Recap

To own ONE Gas, you need to believe in the stability of a regulated gas utility that can convert steady capital investment into consistent earnings and dividend growth. The recent earnings miss and weaker gas volumes do not appear to materially change the near term focus on execution against 2026 guidance, but they do sharpen attention on volume sensitivity as a key operational risk.

The most relevant recent development here is the reaffirmed 2026 adjusted net income guidance of US$294 million to US$302 million, alongside long term adjusted net income growth targets of 7% to 9%. In the context of softer delivered volumes and modest customer growth, this guidance keeps regulatory outcomes and capital recovery front and center as the main catalysts for the story, even as some analysts trim price targets.

Yet behind that steady guidance, investors should be aware of the growing risk that rising system investment could outpace regulatory cost recovery...

ONE Gas' narrative projects $2.6 billion revenue and $354.9 million earnings by 2029. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and about an $81 million earnings increase from $273.5 million today.

Uncover how ONE Gas' forecasts yield a $90.22 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

One member of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimates ONE Gas’s fair value at US$69.98, highlighting how individual views can diverge from market pricing. You should weigh this against the risk that capital spending needs and regulatory recovery may pressure cash flows and returns, and consider how different assumptions could affect the company’s longer term performance.

Explore another fair value estimate on ONE Gas - why the stock might be worth 11% less than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your ONE Gas research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free ONE Gas research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ONE Gas' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.