Last week, you might have seen that El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:LOCO) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.9% to US$15.16 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$130m were what the analysts expected, El Pollo Loco Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.43 per share, an impressive 58% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on El Pollo Loco Holdings after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, El Pollo Loco Holdings' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$504.4m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.12, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$503.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.98 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the substantial gain in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 8.6% to US$20.30. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values El Pollo Loco Holdings at US$22.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$17.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that El Pollo Loco Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of El Pollo Loco Holdings'historical trends, as the 1.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 1.7% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that El Pollo Loco Holdings is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards El Pollo Loco Holdings following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that El Pollo Loco Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple El Pollo Loco Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.